Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are stuck in a range despite spurts of positive upside. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:
- Spot gold, in the week ending August 8, closed with a gain of around 1.1% at $3397. On August 11, spot gold prices moved between $3,341 and $3,402 as the metal as gold slipped on a stronger US Dollar amid hopes of US-China truce extension and a breakthrough in the US-Russia talks over Ukraine, which are scheduled to take place in Alaska on August 15.
- Lack of clarity on import duty on gold exports to the US also contributed to weakness in gold to some extent.
- At the time of writing this article, the shiny metal was changing hands at $3,345, down 1.53% for the day. The MCX October gold contract was noted at Rs 100,318, down nearly 1.50%.
Trades and tariffs:
- US President Trump said that trade deal talks with China are progressing nicely.
- He urged China to quadruple its soybean orders, saying that it will substantially reduce China’s Trade Deficit with the USA.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects trade issues to be finished by October.
- Trump confirmed that Nvidia will pay 15% of China chip revenues to the US government.
Data roundup:
- China’s inflation numbers (July) were out on August 9. CPI y-o-y was steady as against the expectation of a decline of 0.1%, while PPI y-o-y at -3.6% (forecast -3.3%) showed that factory gate deflation extended to the 34th consecutive month.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar Index gains could be attributed to the upcoming US CPI (July) to be released today, which is likely to show a pickup in inflation pace. The Dollar Index was noted at 98.58, up 0.42% for the day.
- Two-year and Ten-year US yields at 3.74% and 4.26% were down by almost 2 bps each. CPI data would be followed by PPI (July) and retail sales advanced (July) scheduled to be released on August 13 and August 15 respectively.
Gold ETF:
- As of August 8, total known global
gold ETF holdings surged to a new-cycle high of 92.14MOz — highest since July 2023.
New exploration remains muted despite high gold prices:
- As per a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights, despite gold prices surging to new record highs, exploration activity has remained subdued. In 2024, the gold industry added just 3 deposits to its global database, which raised the reserves from 2.9 billion Ounces to 3 billion Ounces. The industry players are preferring to expand known deposits rather than to bet on new projects. That average size of new deposits has come down from 7.7 million ounces in the previous decades to just 4.4 million ounces since 2020 is also limiting the expansion activities.
Fed watch:
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said that the latest job market data underscores her forecast for three rate cuts this year.
- Fed Chair list now also includes former St. Louis Fed President Bullard and former George W. Bush adviser Sumerlin.
Upcoming data:
- This week is a data-packed week. Additional major US data on the card this week include industrial production (July), import and export price Indices (July) along with University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (August prel.).
- Investors will monitor the Eurozone’s 2Q (prel.) employment and the secondary reading of 2Q GDP, too.
Gold Price Outlook:
- Gold is still caught in its nearly 12-week-old range of $3,250-$3,450.
- In the very near term, US CPI and other inflation data, US-China trade truce extension and US-Russia talks over Ukraine will dictate gold prices.
- Chances of a positive outcome out of the US-Russia meeting in Alaska on Friday are slim.
- US-China trade truce extension and hot CPI data may pressurize the metal further. In that case, gold may slip further to test support at $3,310 (Rs 99,200). Next major support is at $3,292 (Rs 98,700). Resistance is at $3,375 (Rs 101,200) /$3,410 (Rs 102,300). Gold may stabilize after US-China truce extension and US CPI data as retail sales and the US-Russia talks may not be that positive for risk assets.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
