India was closely monitoring the situation as Afghanistan and Pakistan seemed poised for a dangerous escalation, with Islamabad declaring that the two countries were in an “open war” following Pakistan’s airstrikes on “terrorist hideouts” in Afghanistan and the latter’s retaliatory action. The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has unravelled dramatically in the past few years. Pakistan has blamed Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP) or Pakistan Taliban for terrorist attacks on its soil and on several occasions launched targeted strikes against TTP. According to Islamabad, Baloch insurgents also find sanctuary in Afghanistan. Kabul has mostly responded with what it calls necessary and measured military action.On this occasion though, Pakistan has directly targeted not just the terrorist infrastructure but also Afghanistan military facilities in Kabul and other cities.
India’s own ties with the Taliban have seen a stunning turnaround during this period, initially on the back of its large-scale humanitarian aid to Kabul and now the commitment to fulfil the development needs of the Afghan people, circumventing the lack of international recognition for the regime. India’s response so far to the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis has been a manifestation of this new reality that Islamabad must contend with. India has continued to maintain that Pakistan’s cross-border adventurism resulting in civilian casualties is nothing but a ploy to deflect attention from its domestic failures. India also strongly backs Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. The Taliban reciprocated to these gestures as they endorsed, much to Pakistan’s chagrin, a mention of J&K as a part of India in a joint statement issued after Afghanistan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India last year in Oct.However, while an antagonistic relationship between the two countries allays fears about Pakistan’s longstanding policy of using Afghanistan for strategic depth, a major military escalation that would imperil regional stability is more than what India would bargain for. In fact, it would come at the least opportune time for India as New Delhi, after a period of relative peace, looks to resume development work in the country.Importantly, India is considering an offer from the Taliban to invest in the mining sector, something which China is already actively pursuing. India is also looking to work with Afghanistan on hydroelectric projects. For India, this is the time to reap the benefits of a strong working relationship it has built with the Taliban and a regional war, or its possible spillover effects like a humanitarian or refugee crisis, will likely stymie India’s nascent but expanding footprint in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
