US President Donald Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, accusing India of funding Russia’s war on Ukraine through its continued oil purchases. The shock escalation, delivered via executive order, represents the steepest tariff the US has ever placed on a major Asian partner – and it has sparked sharp backlash in New Delhi.India’s government called the decision “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” with officials vowing to protect national interests. Trump claimed the action was about Russia, but analysts see a more familiar playbook: leveraging tariffs to extract trade concessions, particularly in agriculture, dairy, and pharmaceuticals – sectors India has long shielded.“The move appears less about pressuring Moscow and more about forcing Delhi’s hand in stalled trade talks,” wrote Bloomberg analysts Chetna Kumar and Adam Farrar. “Notably, Trump hasn’t imposed similar penalties on other major buyers of Russian crude – including China – or on Russia itself.” Why it mattersHowever, the fallout extends beyond trade. The US and India have spent two decades building a strategic partnership to counter China’s growing clout in Asia. That foundation is now at risk – along with billions in US investments and manufacturing bets on India as the next global supply chain hub.Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on Indian imports has sent shockwaves through the Indo-Pacific – not just because of its economic impact, but because it risks fracturing the Quad, the four-nation alliance of the US, India, Japan, and Australia formed to contain China’s growing influence.The tariff penalty – officially linked to India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil – comes just months before India is set to host the Quad Leaders’ Summit. Trump was expected to attend. Now, even the summit’s future looks uncertain.Quad: Not just a diplomatic clubThe Quad isn’t just a diplomatic club – it’s the strategic centerpiece of US policy in the Indo-Pacific. Washington has spent decades pulling New Delhi closer to counterbalance Beijing.
- India has long resisted entangling alliances, but the Quad was seen as a flexible format that respected its autonomy.
- Trade, tech, defense cooperation, and infrastructure coordination have all deepened within the bloc.
- But Trump’s tariff blitz threatens that trust – and risks pushing India away from Washington and toward Moscow or Beijing.
- “We are better off together than apart,” said Atul Keshap, president of the US-India Business Council and a former US envoy. “The partnership forged by our elected leaders has achieved considerable mutual prosperity and strategic alignment.”
“We could be heading into a needless crisis that unravels a quarter century of hard-won gains with India,” said Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Zoom in: PM Modi stands firmOn Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without naming Trump directly, issued a defiant statement at a public conference in New Delhi:“Bharat apne kisanon, pashu paalakon aur macchuaare bhai-bahanon ke hiton ke saath kabhi bhi samjhuata nahin karega. … Main jaanata hoon ki vyaktigat roop se mujhe bahut badee keemat chukaanee padegee. Lekin main iske liye taiyaar hoon.” (“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, dairy farmers and fishermen. I know that I will personally have to pay a heavy price. But I am ready for it.”)The statement – clearly aimed at Trump’s tariff demands – underscored how politically radioactive concessions on agriculture and dairy are in India.Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha echoed the defiance: “Trump’s 50% tariff is economic blackmail – an attempt to bully India into an unfair trade deal,” Gandhi posted on X.The rare alignment between Modi’s government and opposition figures highlights the depth of national resistance to US pressure.Between the linesWhile Trump says India is helping fund Russia’s war, the tariff penalty appears selective and strategic, not principled:* China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, faces no new penalties.* Turkey, another big importer, has been spared.* Trump has admitted the tariffs could be adjusted depending on how talks progress.“This is leverage, not policy,” wrote Bloomberg Economics. “Trump hasn’t imposed similar penalties on China or Russia – signaling he’s using India as a bargaining chip.”Even Trump adviser Peter Navarro downplayed future China penalties, saying, “We don’t want to get to a point where we hurt ourselves.”The big pictureUS companies – including Apple, Micron, and Eli Lilly – have poured billions into India, hoping to reduce reliance on China. But Trump’s tariffs have cast a shadow over those bets.* India is the fifth-largest economy and a hub for Quad-linked supply chain strategies.* US spending drives around 2.5% of India’s GDP.* A long-term rupture could derail the Quad’s vision of a free, open, and resilient Indo-Pacific.Trump’s threat to target Indian pharmaceuticals – with duties up to 250% – would hit a sector where India dominates global supply chains and plays a major role in American healthcare.“Many export orders have already been put on hold,” said Ajay Sahai of India’s Export Organisations. “This blow could force exporters to lose long-standing clients.”“India is open to a deal – but not at the cost of its farmers or its sovereignty,” a commerce ministry official told PTI.Enter Russia and ChinaMeanwhile, India is moving to strengthen ties with China and Russia – an outcome directly counter to the Quad’s strategic intent.
- Modi plans to visit China for the first time since 2018.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to travel to New Delhi later this year.
- Talks are underway to revive the Russia-India-China trilateral framework.
- “Russia will attempt to exploit the rift by proposing new joint projects in defense,” said Aleksei Zakharov of the Observer Research Foundation.
What’s nextAs far as the Quad is concerned, its future hinges on whether the US and India can de-escalate quietly – or whether the tariff escalation becomes a geopolitical rupture.* India may delay or downscale the Quad summit, avoiding a high-profile clash with Trump.* Washington risks seeing its Indo-Pacific strategy undermined from within if India shifts its focus away from the alliance.* Other Quad members – Japan and Australia – now face an uncomfortable dilemma: stick with the US or mediate to protect cohesion.“Relations with India risk becoming a football in American domestic politics,” warned Evan Feigenbaum, a former State Department official. “The Quad works only if trust among all four partners remains intact.”Meanwhile, India is likely to resist publicly caving to pressure – but could quietly scale down oil purchases from Russia to ease tensions, according to reports.(With inputs from agencies)
